Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
