Peace Plans Set to be Presented to Moscow Within Days, Says Ukraine's President

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.