Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
